Holiday Shoppers Will Spend, but Tariffs and Prices Change How: A Seller Plan

ICSC forecast on Oct. 6, 2026 that U.S. holiday retail sales will grow 4.3% to 4.9% this season, topping $1.7 trillion, and its survey found that 78% of shoppers plan to spend the same or more than last year. The same day, New York Fed economists published research showing that tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation by February 2026.

Put those together and you get the shape of this holiday season: people still plan to spend, but prices are higher, budgets are tighter for many households, and shoppers are comparing more before they buy. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, released Oct. 7, added one more signal. Most officials expect another interest rate increase by year end. Here is what the new numbers say and what a small online seller can do with them this month.

What do the new holiday forecasts say?

Three surveys landed this week, and they don't fully agree.

• ICSC (Oct. 6). 88% of U.S. adults, about 237 million people, plan to buy holiday gifts or items, and 78% plan to spend the same or more. The top 10% of shoppers expect to spend five times more than the average shopper. But 49% worry about affording gifts, 50% say debt will affect their spending, and 49% expect to borrow to cover purchases. The survey of 1,003 adults ran Sept. 21 to 23.
• JLL (Oct. 6). Planned holiday budgets average $1,243, up 9.7% from last year. Gift budgets rose only 3.1%; most of the increase went to food, decorations, entertainment and dining out. Online delivery is still the most-used channel at 80%, though that is down from 83.9%.
• Teneo (October). Median expected spend fell to $680 per household from $750. Lower-income households signal a 25% cut, middle-income households expect to spend 20% less, and higher-income households plan to spend about the same. 68% said prices and inflation are affecting how they feel about holiday spending.

Why don't the numbers match?

They measure different things. ICSC asks whether people will spend the same or more. JLL averages planned budgets, which can be pulled up by big spenders. Teneo reports the median household, which better reflects the typical shopper. The common thread is concentration: ICSC's top 10% and Teneo's income split both point to a season driven by higher-income shoppers, while many others cut back or borrow.

For a small seller, that means one promotion plan won't fit everyone. Some buyers want premium gifts. Many others want proof that they're getting a good price.

What do tariffs have to do with it?

The New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics post found that for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices rise by about a quarter of a percent after one year. Nearly 90% of the tariffs passed through to U.S. import prices, and retailers passed about half of the direct effect to shoppers within three months and all of it by six months. Prices of U.S.-made goods rise more slowly, as producers pay more for imported parts and raise their markups when competing imports cost more.

The researchers estimate the tariff effect on the price level peaked near 3% in February 2026 and eased to about 2% by August, after a Supreme Court ruling ended the emergency-powers tariffs and a lower 10% surcharge replaced them. They expect it to edge up again as August 2026 tariffs on Canadian goods pass through, along with a tariff increase on Canadian cars, trucks and parts announced for January 2027.

The Fed minutes from the Sept. 15 to 16 meeting said both total and core inflation were higher than a year earlier, which staff attributed mostly to past tariff increases, higher energy and input costs, and AI-related technology prices. Most participants said another rate increase "would likely be appropriate by year end."

The takeaway for sellers: shoppers are seeing higher shelf prices, and credit may get more expensive for them and for you.

What does that mean for how people shop?

Shoppers are using AI to compare. ICSC found 61% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools or assistants, up from 47% last year. The top planned uses are comparing prices (29%), researching products and features (19%), checking availability (18%) and finding deals (16%). And 86% still plan more research before buying.

They are also starting later. JLL found only 26% of shoppers will begin before October and 42.4% by Halloween, with the busiest starting points between Halloween and Black Friday weekend. Black Friday is still the anchor, though fewer JLL respondents plan to use it online (55.1%), and Cyber Monday online fell to 46.9% from 55.2%.

What should sellers do this week?

1. Check your Amazon deadlines. Amazon's Holiday 2026 announcement says deal submissions for Black Friday Week and Cyber Monday close on Oct. 20. Its inventory arrival dates for those events are Oct. 14 for AWD, Oct. 21 for FBA with minimal shipment splits, and Oct. 28 for Amazon-optimized splits.
2. Rework your landed costs. If tariffs raised your import costs this year, recalculate margins before you set holiday discounts, so a deal doesn't turn into a loss.
3. Make your listings answer comparison questions. Price, size, materials, compatibility, what's in the box and delivery timing should be clear in the title, bullets and images. Those are the details AI assistants and comparison shoppers look for.
4. Plan two kinds of offers. Keep a premium bundle or gift set for higher-budget buyers, and a clear value option for price-sensitive ones.
5. Time your stock for a later rush. With fewer shoppers starting early, keep inventory and ad budget for the Halloween-to-Cyber Monday stretch.
6. Show the value. A short product video that shows size, use and what's included answers questions before a buyer leaves to compare elsewhere.
7. Review your listings with fresh eyes. We covered how Amazon's own listing tools fit into this in our Amazon Enhance My Listing checklist.

Disclosure: some links are affiliate links; ShopperCove may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.

If your Amazon listings still rely on phone photos and thin copy, Listimo is one way to rebuild them before the rush. Its page says it turns a single product photo into listing images, sales copy, A+ content and a product video, checks images and copy against Amazon's rules, and is built to keep the product itself unchanged. It also says it doesn't guarantee Amazon will accept generated content, and that you should review every image and disclose AI-generated content where the marketplace requires it. ShopperCove did not test Listimo for this article. Listimo link: Open linkShow address (affiliate link)

For a gift-season explainer that shows how a product works, VidToon's sales page describes a 2D animated explainer video maker with ready-made characters, Google and Microsoft text-to-speech voices and a commercial license. ShopperCove did not test VidToon for this article. VidToon link: Open linkShow address (affiliate link)

Tools that help

• Listimo, AI listing builder for Amazon sellers. Its page lists a Seller Pack of 1,800 credits for $229, which it says covers around 10 complete listings, as a one-time payment, plus a free listing check by ASIN with no sign-up. Listimo link: Open linkShow address
• VidToon, 2D animated explainer videos. Its lifetime page lists $49 as a one-time payment, says the price will move to $67 a month after the launch special, and promises a fix or a full refund if you have problems. VidToon link: Open linkShow address

How this was made: facts were gathered on 8 Oct 2026 (IST) from the ICSC, JLL and Teneo surveys, the New York Fed's research post, the Federal Reserve's minutes and Amazon's Holiday 2026 seller announcement listed below, then written up with AI help and checked line by line against those sources. ShopperCove did not run its own consumer survey for this article.

Sources

• Open financialcontent.comShow address
• Open jll.comShow address
• Open teneo.comShow address
• Open libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.orgShow address
• Open federalreserve.govShow address
• Open sellercentral.amazon.comShow address
• Open listimo.aiShow address
• Open vidtoon.comShow address

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